WEIMERandWIRTH Performance History
and
WEIMERandWIRTH System Description
The table below shows the Annual and Total Returns of WEIMERandWIRTH, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ), the Russell Micro Cap Index and the Vanguard Small Cap Index. The Description of the WEIMERandWIRTH system is shown below the table. The performance of WW thru 2010 was absolutely amazing, but 2011 was not a good year.
WEIMERandWIRTH posted returns and selections online after June 30, 2001. The returns shown above are the returns of complete years, and they will be updated at the end of each year.
WEIMERandWIRTH System Description & History
We look for stocks that have increased earnings, and that have positive price momentum. During the nineties, before we shared results with anyone, Doug concentrated primarily on large cap NASDAQ tech stocks. I began monitoring his system in late 1997. His performance was good during 1998 and 1999. Unfortunately, he was doing a lot of work, but he was barely keeping up with the NASDAQ 100.
After the crash of 2000, I took a closer look at what he was doing because his portfolio held up reasonably well, while the bottom fell out of the NASDAQ and everything else. After June 2001 we began sharing our results with anyone who wanted them, and I began investing in WW stocks. I'm glad I did, but unfortunately, during the crash of 2008, WW did not fare any better than the indices, and during 2011 we underperformed ALL the indices.
Our stock selection criteria are constantly being refined, but here's a summary of our stock selection process at this point:
I download key stats and sector data from Yahoo, and I download all the info that appears in IBD on about 1000 to 3000 stocks every quarter that have reported increased earnings. Downloading IBD data is not easy because I had to write code to read PDF files, and then transfer the data into Excel files so that it could be processed. Processing and downloading data take between one and three hours every evening after eIBD is available, generally after 8:00 PM. Some of the data have to be checked manually because my code cannot read all text accurately. If there are bugs in my code, then it takes a lot longer. Bugs manifest themselves whenever IBD or Yahoo change the way in which their data are presented. Sometimes I can resolve the problem quickly, but sometimes it takes a few days to debug the code.
All the data are put into a workbook, and then I download 75 trading days of price history from Yahoo when it becomes available. We recommend picks that exhibit characteristics of picks that have done well in the past. Simple, but it requires a lot of grunt work.
At this point we have a little over 50 subscribers. We freely shared our results with the public after June 2001, but we started charging for our service during June 2005 because we were spending a considerable amount of time and a small amount of money maintaining websites and the model portfolio.
In the beginning we had about 60 subscribers. Every year we pick up a few new members, but every year we lose a few. I believe the reason folks drop out is that trading 60 stocks every quarter requires too much time and effort for the dropouts. The WW Model Portfolio accounts for transaction costs by adding 0.5% to the average HI-LO price when buying and subtracting 0.5% from the average price when selling.
About 15 to 20 subscribers report their results to Doug twice a year, and they have (mostly) been successful. There is a "Report" page on this website. Click on "Complaints" in the Index of the Report page to read a letter from a frustrated subscriber and my rebuttal. Interestingly, we offered to refund his money. Not only did he refuse our offer for a refund, but he re-subscribed. That was the only complaint I received since June 30, 2001.
However, I believe the emotional part of the equation is really what causes failure i.e., most folks are eager to buy when markets are rising, but they fail to buy after experiencing a difficult period. These are the folks who probably shouldn't own stock.