I am no longer accepting new subscribers.
My results for 2011 and 2012 were disappointing, but the astounding returns of 2013 restored my confidence in my version of Growth and Momentum investing. Unfortunately Growth and Momentum investing requires “animal spirits” and especially “irrational exuberance” to be successful. The more irrational, the better.
There was very little exuberance during 2014, so my results were disappointing again. That sad fact, and the sad fact that I am getting old and tired helped me decide to retire from the newsletter biz
I will continue to mail my newsletter to existing subscribers, but I will no longer accept new subscribers. The primary reason for my decision is that I do not want to encourage anyone to put money at risk by using a strategy whose effectiveness seems to be declining. That means that WW will “officially” be terminated on June 30, 2015 (WW’s 14th birthday), but it will unofficially serve its existing members thru at least December 31, 2015.
My current plan is to continue to publish my website for an indeterminate period. If you have any questions or comments, write to HW-Newsletter@hotmail.com
FAQ 9. Why were the number of subscribers limited to fifty?
Fifty is an arbitrary number, but according to SEC rules, I have a responsibility not to influence the market with my recommendations. My newsletter is a Micro-Cap newsletter, and many Micro-Caps are thinly traded. So, I have to be reasonably sure that my subscribers can trade without too much difficulty, and I have to be reasonably sure my subscribers aren’t moving the market. I spent a considerable amount of time comparing the results of stocks I recommended to subscribers to a control group of stocks that were not recommended to subscribers, and I concluded that 60 subscribers a few years ago were not moving the market. I feel reasonably confident that 50 won’t move the market in the future.
FAQ 10. If you limit yourself to fifty subscribers, it is obvious that you did not make a great deal of money from your newsletter, so why did you do it?
I retired from my productive job at the end of 2007, so this is one way of staying active, and I generally enjoy it, especially during a rising market. A greater number of subscribers wouldn’t give me significantly more money or more pleasure. When the market cooperates, I make much, much more money trading than I could possibly make from my newsletter. (You may wish to ask yourself why anyone would want to publish a financial newsletter if they were really capable of beating the market.)
My newsletter service consisted of three weekly emailings:
1. On Wednesday, after the markets close, during the 4-6 week earnings season every quarter that generally begins during the first week of February, May, August or November, subscribers receive a list of stocks that the model portfolio will sell on Thursday.
2. On Thursday, after the markets close, during the 4-6 week earnings season every quarter, subscribers receive a list of stocks that the model portfolio will buy on Friday with the money acquired from Thursday's sales. The maximum number of stocks that will be purchased during any week is 25, and the max number that will be purchased during any quarter is 60.
All stocks are generally held for a minimum of 3 months after they
are purchased.
The average holding period has been closer to 100 days than 3
months.
3. On Friday, after the markets close, subscribers receive the weekly report that contains all stocks held, purchased and sold during the current quarter. The returns of all individual stocks are shown in this report, as well as quarterly, year to date, total and annual performance data for the model portfolio, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ 100, the Russell Small Cap Index and the Russell Micro Cap Index.
Recommended Reading